The Diamondbacks have an opportunity to even the series against the New York Mets at Citi Field, with the first pitch set for 10:40 A.M. MST.

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Initially, a split seemed improbable after the New York Mets clinched the first two games, both by a narrow margin of one run. A victory in the upcoming game would salvage two wins on a road trip that commenced with four consecutive losses. Nonetheless, the Diamondbacks managed to reignite their offense in the last two games. Amidst splitting these matches, they accumulated 19 runs and displayed an uptick in power hitting. In Saturday’s game, they incorporated speed and aggressive baserunning into their offensive strategy, posing challenges for the Mets, a team grappling with basestealing threats in the 2024 season.

To secure the split, they’ll rely on another strong performance from right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. Despite carrying a season ERA of 4.16, Pfaadt continues to progress as a starting pitcher. He has been a dependable workhorse for the Diamondbacks, consistently pitching more than six innings per start and never fewer than five. Advanced metrics indicate that Pfaadt is a more effective pitcher than his current ERA suggests, with a 3.24 FIP, 3.65 xFIP, and 2.88 xERA. It’s anticipated that his ERA will regress closer to these figures as his left on base rate (LOB%) improves from the current 60.7% towards the league average of 71.7%.

Pfaadt’s success this season stems from his ability to minimize hard contact. Although his strikeout rate hasn’t notably increased compared to last season, he has reduced the number of barrels and home runs allowed. Despite not generating a high volume of swings and misses, he has succeeded in limiting hard-hit balls and avoiding barrels. His 4.6% barrel rate ranks in the 83rd percentile among qualified major league pitchers. Coupled with a low 4.4% walk rate, it’s evident that Pfaadt is a pitcher who excels at controlling the game on the mound.

Taking the mound for the Mets is left-hander José Quintana. Quintana has endured a challenging season with the Mets, marked by a career-low 15.4% strikeout rate and frequent contact by opposing batters. When performing well, Quintana effectively locates his four-seamer inside against right-handed hitters while utilizing his other pitches away from them. He boasts an above-average ability to avoid barrels, primarily attributable to a solid 46% ground ball rate.

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