Kirk Cousins has solidified his position as the Atlanta Falcons’ franchise quarterback by agreeing to a substantial contract set to be finalized Wednesday. This pivotal move reshapes the team’s outlook for 2024 and alleviates any pressure they may have felt to trade up in the NFL Draft for a future quarterback. Consequently, their first-round prospect target is now firmly established.

Recent comprehensive mock draft analyses, combined with an assessment of team needs, had already made clear the Falcons’ top two options in the NFL Draft over the past week. Without addressing the quarterback situation through free agency, their focus would have been on either selecting a quarterback for the future or pursuing an elite edge rusher.

The urgent need for an elite edge rusher for the Falcons is underscored by the fact that last year, no player on their team managed more than seven sacks—Grady Jarrett, an interior defensive lineman, led with that number. While sacks alone do not always indicate performance, pressure rate is a more telling metric. None of the Falcons’ edge defenders recorded a pressure rate exceeding 9% last season, indicating a lack of top-tier talent at this crucial position in the league in 2023.

Given that an edge rusher is now a “lock” as their first-round pick, the next question is which player or players will they choose? Based on analysis of over 100 mock drafts from the past month, there appears to be a clear frontrunner. For a breakdown of the latest mock data, refer to the thread posted here:

Dallas Turner, from Alabama, stands out as the top choice. He combines exceptional youth, athletic potential, and proven production among edge defenders in this draft class. Turner achieved a remarkable 99th percentile A to Z Sports Athletic Composite Score at the NFL Combine, demonstrating his elite athleticism—an attribute he showcased less than a month after turning 21 years old. There’s potential for even greater physical development in the years ahead, making him a standout prospect.

In addition to Turner, the Falcons may also consider Jared Verse from Florida State and Laiatu Latu from UCLA as potential edge rushers in the first round. Verse displayed impressive Speed Score and Burst Score metrics at the NFL Combine despite adding significant weight in the past season. Latu, while not as athletically gifted as Verse, boasts the highest pass rush pressure rate among edge rushers in the class, thanks to his diverse array of pass rush techniques.

If Turner is off the board by the time the Falcons make their eighth overall pick, either Verse or Latu would represent strong alternatives. However, Turner remains the frontrunner and likely fan favorite as the 2024 NFL Draft approaches.

Stay tuned for more updates on the Falcons’ free agency moves and additional coverage in the days and weeks ahead. Also, if you missed it, check out the Winners and Losers from the NFL Combine in the A to Z Film Room breakdown video linked below.

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