Ketel Marte The Arizona Diamondbacks have surged to the top of the standings, emerging as one of the hottest teams in baseball during the latter half of the season. Entering the All-Star break with a record of 49-48, the Diamondbacks have since posted a remarkable 23-8 run, boosting their overall record to 72-56.
This impressive stretch has earned them the top spot in the NL Wild Card race, holding a slim half-game lead over the San Diego Padres and trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by four games in the NL West.
Remarkably, the Diamondbacks have achieved this success despite significant injuries to three key players. Christian Walker has been sidelined since July 29 due to an oblique strain, Gabriel Moreno has been out since August 5 with a left abductor strain, and Ketel Marte, who sprained his ankle, managed just ten at-bats between August 9 and 18 before landing on the injured list.
Despite a brief setback when they were swept by the Rays in Tampa Bay, the Diamondbacks rebounded with a three-game sweep of the Marlins. However, the real challenge lies ahead: with 34 games remaining, they face the toughest schedule among the top National League contenders, according to Baseball Reference. In contrast, the Dodgers have the easiest remaining schedule, while the Padres’ schedule is rated neutral.
Schedule Analysis and Projections
A detailed analysis of the Diamondbacks’ remaining games reveals the difficulty they face. By evaluating the win percentages of their opponents both at home and on the road and comparing these to the Diamondbacks’ own win percentages, the projected performance is slightly above .500. Specifically, the analysis suggests the Diamondbacks could finish 18-16, which would bring their final record to 90-72—likely securing a Wild Card spot.
However, projections are not predictions. While it’s clear the schedule is daunting, the Diamondbacks’ ability to maintain performance without their top players adds another layer of challenge.
Handling Injuries
When Christian Walker went down, the acquisition of Josh Bell proved crucial. Acquired at the trade deadline, Bell made an immediate impact with two home runs in his debut and posted a .300 average with four homers and nine RBIs in his first 12 games. However, Bell has since struggled, going 0-for-18 in his next five games but managed a key RBI base hit and drew walks in the recent series against the Marlins. Currently, he’s hitting .229 with an .802 OPS.
The team is hopeful that Walker might return by the start of the Dodgers series on August 30, but he will miss at least the next six games against the Red Sox and Mets.
In Moreno’s absence, rookie catcher Adrian Del Castillo has started nine games, showing strong performance with several key home runs and a .361 average with a 1.092 OPS. Backup Jose Herrera, with a .235 average, has provided limited offense but contributed a crucial RBI triple. Both catchers have struggled with throwing out base stealers, combining for just a 7% success rate compared to Moreno’s 31% last season. The drop in defensive capability is noticeable, with teams exploiting the Diamondbacks’ poor base runner management.
There is no specific timeline for Moreno’s return, although manager Torey Lovullo remains optimistic that he will be back before the end of the season.
Replacing Ketel Marte has been a challenge. Kevin Newman, who has hit .346 since August 9, offers a high batting average but lacks Marte’s power. Marte, who has hit 30 home runs and driven in 81 RBIs this season, is eligible to return by August 30, but it remains uncertain if he will be ready by then. A clearer update might be available after Lovullo’s press conference next Tuesday.
Looking Ahead
With a tough remaining schedule and key players sidelined, the Diamondbacks will need continued strong performances from their replacements to maintain their current position. Resilience has been a hallmark of this team under Lovullo, who has guided them through numerous injuries to reach this point. Given their track record of overcoming adversity, it would be unwise to underestimate their chances of continuing their strong play.
Opponents are well aware that facing the Diamondbacks means contending with a formidable and tenacious team.
