As the American League Division Series approaches, Stephen Vogt and the Guardians face critical decisions regarding their postseason roster. While the position players seem nearly finalized, the choice surrounding the pitching staff looms large: should Vogt carry 12 or 13 pitchers?
This situation has garnered much attention, particularly because the scheduling of the Division Series allows for more spacing between games compared to the Championship Series. Cleveland is set to host Game 1 on October 5th, followed by Game 2 at home on October 7th, and then Game 3 on the road on October 9th. If necessary, Game 4 will occur on October 10th, and Game 5 will take place at home on October 12th. The extended breaks between games provide an interesting dynamic for Vogt’s decision-making process.
Last year, under Terry Francona, the Guardians opted for a 12-pitcher roster, benefitting from having two ace-level starters, Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, alongside Cal Quantrill, who maintained a sub-4.00 ERA over a substantial innings total. This season, however, the circumstances are considerably different. Vogt’s inaugural year as manager saw Bieber begin strong but quickly succumb to injury, requiring Tommy John surgery after just two dominant starts. Meanwhile, McKenzie struggled with injuries throughout last season and faced significant challenges this year, creating uncertainty about his performance.
The remaining pitcher from last year’s roster, Logan Allen, has experienced a steep decline, leading to his demotion after struggling to establish himself at the major league level. Carlos Carrasco has also faltered, unable to maintain a low ERA while trying to contribute over 100 innings. Gavin Williams, returning from injury, has had difficulty finding his footing, leaving Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively to shoulder most of the rotation’s load. Midseason signing Matthew Boyd has brought some stability since his recovery, but his presence has been limited due to injury concerns.
In essence, the current rotation feels precariously assembled, lacking the depth and reliability of previous seasons. However, despite this, Vogt and pitching coach Carl Willis have cultivated a potent bullpen, which may allow them to avoid overextending their top starters in the Wild Card round, as the team did last year.
The Guardians plan to utilize Tanner Bibee and likely Matthew Boyd as starters for the first two ALDS games at home. But the strategy beyond that remains uncertain. Recent performances suggest a trend toward leveraging the bullpen effectively. In a recent game against Cincinnati, the Guardians demonstrated this approach by using multiple pitchers to cover innings without allowing a run, showcasing their bullpen’s capability.
While the expectation of perfection from the bullpen is unrealistic, their overall effectiveness has been promising. Furthermore, with pitchers like Alex Cobb and Gavin Williams potentially entering the mix, Vogt seems prepared to maximize his bullpen’s strengths. As reported, Williams will make his last regular-season appearance out of the bullpen to gear up for potential postseason action.
Given the series format, with rest days between games, it’s probable that Vogt will opt for a 12-pitcher roster. This approach would allow the Guardians to strategically deploy their pitchers while keeping their best arms fresh for the crucial moments of the series. As the roster decisions draw nearer, the focus will remain on how Vogt capitalizes on his team’s strengths to make a significant postseason run.