Running the numbers repeatedly doesn’t clarify anything more than it did yesterday. The calculator isn’t wrong; something about the St. Louis Cardinals new direction just doesn’t add up. During a press conference, outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak highlighted the team’s plan to cut payroll in 2025, but specifics about which players would be affected or the makeup of next year’s roster were not provided. Team president Bill DeWitt III referred questions about realistic on-field expectations back to Mozeliak, who chose not to respond.
The appointment of Chaim Bloom as Mozeliak’s successor came with a commitment to overhaul the struggling player development system, which is already in progress. “Our top priority is to establish a foundation for sustained competitive success in the coming years,” said chairman Bill DeWitt Jr.
But what prevents the Cardinals from building that foundation while staying competitive now? After finishing the season with 83 wins, the team faces only two major free agents—one a first baseman with below-average performance, and the other a reliever eager to re-sign. The answer seems to revolve around “money,” raising concerns for both the short- and long-term future of the franchise.
This ownership group bought the Cardinals in 1995 for $150 million and sold off parking garages from that deal for $75 million shortly after. Forbes recently valued the team at $2.55 billion, reflecting a $1.8 billion increase over 30 years. This figure doesn’t include the independently operated Ballpark Village.
DeWitt III made it clear that the team anticipates a revenue decline in 2025 due to local television contract issues and a decrease in attendance. While attendance is indeed down and unlikely to rebound, skepticism remains about the TV rights concerns since the team received its full expected payment from Diamond Sports in 2024.
Future prospects suggest teams may gain a larger share of broadcast profits. DeWitt III also mentioned the potential for legalized sports betting in Missouri, which the Cardinals expect to benefit from significantly. By next spring, fans could bet on games via their phones or at a nearby sports book in the team-branded entertainment complex.
“We have a long offseason to figure out budgeting for our revenues,” DeWitt III said. “Payroll is influenced by revenues, though not directly.” Yet in May, he noted that revenue typically translates into payroll, indicating a shift in funds is needed. If the Cardinals’ revenue falls to around $360 million in 2024, they would have approximately $145 million to manage all expenses beyond salaries. Mozeliak mentioned plans to increase player development spending by 8-12% in 2025, contingent on clearer revenue projections.
If the Cardinals let all their key free agents go, they could clear about $35 million in salary by replacing them with league-minimum players. This calculation factors in increases for certain players and doesn’t include potential savings from trades expected after the announced “reset.” This would surpass the planned increase in player development spending.
The Cardinals reportedly did not allocate $350 million to player development in 2024, making it mathematically impossible. Even estimating a generous $100 million for annual spending appears unrealistic. The gap of tens of millions suggests that money will be diverted from the big league payroll without being reinvested into player development. This conclusion aligns with logical reasoning and basic arithmetic, raising questions about where the revenue is truly being directed.