Francesco Bagnaia’s chances of defending his MotoGP title are on the brink. The Ducati factory rider is now 24 points behind Pramac’s Jorge Martin as they head into the season’s final round in Barcelona next week.
Despite facing challenges for much of the season, it was Bagnaia’s crash from second place in the Malaysian GP sprint that has dealt a heavy blow to his title hopes, giving Martin a significant advantage.
From the start of the year, Bagnaia identified the sprint races as his main weakness in the title race. After the first six rounds, he had earned just 14 points in Saturday sprints, while Martin had amassed 56. Although Bagnaia had actually outscored Martin by three points in Sunday races at that stage, he found himself with a daunting 39-point deficit in the overall standings.
To his credit, Bagnaia has improved in the sprints over the course of the season. Since the Italian GP in June, he has secured six sprint victories in 13 attempts, compared to Martin’s four. Over the entire season, Martin still leads with seven wins to Bagnaia’s six, thanks to his strong early-season form. Nevertheless, the defending champion has proven he can be fast in the new format.
However, while Bagnaia has shown he can win on any given day, he has also made costly mistakes, losing valuable points to Martin throughout the year.
As early as the second round in Portugal, Bagnaia threw away a sprint win when he outbraked himself while leading the race. He later explained that his mistake stemmed from miscalculating the impact of a decreasing fuel load on braking performance, which caused him to run off track.
A DNF in the Le Mans sprint was partially due to his own misfortune, as a crash in qualifying left his main bike too damaged to race. The backup bike, described by Bagnaia as “dangerous,” forced him to retire after just three laps.
One of the most critical errors came in Barcelona, where Bagnaia crashed on the final lap while holding a clear second-place position. Despite a rocky first half of the season, Bagnaia had managed to claw his way to the top of the standings, largely thanks to Martin’s crash while leading the German GP.
But when racing resumed at Silverstone in August, Bagnaia couldn’t capitalize on the situation, falling off in the sprint despite having a podium finish in sight. That weekend underscored a troubling pattern: Bagnaia’s tendency to make costly mistakes at crucial moments. His 10-point lead from Sachsenring quickly evaporated, leaving him with a three-point deficit to Martin and shifting the focus to Martin’s ability to handle the pressure.
Bagnaia’s mistake in Malaysia at Turn 9 was another blow. While the corner is notoriously tricky, it still marked his fourth non-score in a sprint this season, compared to two for Martin. This has contributed to a massive 48-point loss to Martin in sprint races alone.
*Sprint Points Comparison (Martin vs. Bagnaia)*
Martin: 164 | Bagnaia: 116
Despite these setbacks, Bagnaia has continued to deliver strong performances on Sundays. In Malaysia, he fought back to beat Martin in the GP, claiming his 10th win of the season. That victory tied him with Casey Stoner for the most wins in a season for Ducati, though Stoner achieved his feat when there were fewer races on the calendar.
If Bagnaia were to win in Barcelona, it would equal Valentino Rossi’s best seasons for victories (2001, 2002, 2005), though with the same qualification that Stoner’s total came in a different era.
*Grand Prix Points Comparison (Martin vs. Bagnaia)*
Martin: 321 | Bagnaia: 345
Looking at the overall picture, it’s clear that Bagnaia’s title hopes have been hurt by the introduction of the sprint format. Without the sprints, he would be leading the championship by 24 points heading to Barcelona, rather than trailing Martin by the same margin.
However, the sprints have also allowed Bagnaia to build his race pace over the weekend, which is why he often performs better on Sundays after slower starts on Fridays. This aspect of his strategy highlights why he’s been able to secure wins on race day, even when Martin outperforms him in the sprints.
Some of Bagnaia’s sprint struggles haven’t been entirely his fault. At Jerez, for example, he was taken out by Brad Binder and Marco Bezzecchi, and at Aragon, he pointed to a faulty Michelin tire as the cause of his struggles. But these instances pale in comparison to the unforced errors that have cost him dearly.
In the end, Bagnaia’s tendency to make mistakes at critical moments has put his title defense in jeopardy, and with just one round left, he faces the real possibility of surrendering his crown to Martin.