John Mozeliak, the president of baseball operations for the St. Louis Cardinals, addressed the media recently, including Derrick Goold from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, stating that it’s increasingly likely that Nolan Arenado will remain with the team. Mozeliak emphasized that the likelihood of Arenado being a part of the club for Opening Day is stronger than not, adding, “I think the mindset right now is he’s likely going to be a part of our club at this point.”
This update comes as no surprise, given the recent developments surrounding Arenado’s trade prospects. About a month ago, reports surfaced suggesting that the Cardinals’ efforts to move Arenado had stalled. While the Boston Red Sox were considered the most likely suitor, challenges in structuring a trade emerged, especially with Rafael Devers already occupying third base for Boston.
The Red Sox had been pursuing a significant infield investment, and they made a move to secure Alex Bregman in a deal on Wednesday. However, Bregman’s presence complicates the fit with Arenado, especially with Devers already entrenched at third. The Red Sox had explored scenarios where Devers could move to first base and other trades could be made, but these options seemed difficult to execute. With Bregman’s reported three-year, $120M contract, which includes significant financial commitments, Boston’s plans to pursue Arenado have essentially come to a halt. Chris Cotillo of MassLive estimates the odds of Boston being involved in an Arenado trade at “about 0.0%.”
This shift in trade discussions is particularly notable given the Cardinals’ offseason plans. As early as last September, reports emerged suggesting that the Cardinals were looking to pivot towards a more long-term strategy, shifting away from short-term contention and focusing more on player development. This shift would have positioned 2025 as a “reset” year for the franchise, and many speculated that the Cardinals would make certain players available for trade, including Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Steven Matz, and others.
However, as the offseason has progressed, those anticipated trades have not materialized. Contreras and Gray, both of whom have no-trade clauses, made it clear that they were unwilling to waive them, and the Cardinals have also shown little interest in moving players like Erick Fedde or Ryan Helsley. Arenado, though reportedly more open to waiving his no-trade protection than Gray or Contreras, had specific conditions for any potential deal. It was reported that Arenado had a list of six teams to which he would approve a trade, although it has been suggested that these preferences are more flexible and context-dependent than initially believed.
Arenado vetoed a trade to the Astros in December, but the situation surrounding Houston made the deal more complicated, especially after the team traded Kyle Tucker. The Astros then opted for a simpler solution by signing Christian Walker to play first base, effectively ruling out any deal for Arenado. With the Astros and Red Sox now out of the picture, the other teams that had expressed interest—such as the Yankees, Dodgers, and Padres—also present challenges. The Yankees reportedly wanted the Cardinals to absorb more of Arenado’s salary than the team was willing to, and the Dodgers have Max Muncy at third base, making a trade for Arenado unlikely. The Padres, facing financial constraints, also seem like a less feasible option for Arenado.
Despite the challenges, Mozeliak suggested that if a trade were to happen, it would require Arenado to expand his list of acceptable teams. He noted, “I think it would have to open up a little bit more,” referring to the limited nature of Arenado’s trade preferences. It appears the Cardinals have exhausted the other possibilities, making it more likely that Arenado stays in St. Louis for the upcoming season.
If Arenado does remain with the Cardinals, the team will face some decisions about playing time. The original plan in trading Arenado was to free up salary and provide more opportunities for players like Nolan Gorman, who would have taken over third base after a difficult 2024 season. With Arenado still in the fold, Gorman may be pushed back to second base, potentially limiting his development at third. This could also affect the playing time of other infielders like Thomas Saggese and Brendan Donovan, who may be forced into more utility roles. Additionally, outfielders like Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II might see their playing time impacted as the Cardinals try to balance their roster.
In conclusion, the winter has been a surprising one for the Cardinals, who have not made the significant changes many anticipated. They haven’t signed any major league free agents, and their only trade thus far has been acquiring depth infielder Michael Helman from the Twins. What seemed like a transformative offseason may instead result in a roster largely unchanged from last season. With Arenado likely staying put, the Cardinals face an interesting challenge in managing their roster and preparing for a season of transition.