On any given day, a baseball team must field 10 players, accounting for the designated hitter in all games. The central challenge lies in maximizing the value derived from these roster spots.
Now, let’s delve into the concept of value, temporarily setting aside financial considerations and focusing on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a metric that, while imperfect, generally serves its purpose. An average player typically generates around 2.0 WAR over a full season. This signifies that approximately half of all players who complete a season fall short of this mark, while the other half exceed it. Naturally, teams with winning records tend to have more players surpassing this average threshold. The greater the value concentrated in each position, the stronger the prospects of achieving a winning season.
This brings us to the significance of superstars. Enter Elly De La Cruz and the critical imperative for the Cincinnati Reds to secure him with a contract extension immediately. Currently, De La Cruz boasts a 4.4 WAR for the season according to FanGraphs, ranking second in the National League and sixth across all of Major League Baseball. He is on pace to achieve a stellar 7.3 WAR by season’s end, a feat that would eclipse any season by a Reds shortstop in history, including the legendary Barry Larkin.
A 7 WAR contribution from a single position is monumental. In theory, a team could field five players each contributing 1.0 WAR and still aim for a .500 record, provided all other positions perform at an average level.
(Quick Aside: Offensive metrics are currently unprecedented. The league’s batting average has hovered below .250 for five consecutive years, a rarity not seen since 1908 and 1968, excluding pitchers. Hence, De La Cruz’s .256 average should be interpreted in the context of these trends.)
At just 22 years old, Elly De La Cruz has demonstrated across-the-board improvement compared to previous seasons, solidifying his status as a bona fide superstar. His offensive prowess is exceptional across all positions and particularly remarkable at shortstop. While his defensive capabilities are still developing (acknowledging the propensity for errors typical of young shortstops), his potential is immense.
Now, let’s address the financial aspect.
De La Cruz is poised to enter free agency at the age of 28. Presently, the Reds have a golden opportunity to secure him, akin to how the Atlanta Braves secured Ronald Acuna Jr. or other teams have locked down their young stars. The advantage lies in providing financial security to the player while capitalizing on cost-effectiveness during his initial free agency years.
The Reds must act swiftly.
While some may advocate for the Reds to emulate the thrifty model of the Tampa Bay Rays, even the Rays’ approach is increasingly challenged across baseball. Innovations in team strategies inevitably become widespread, making sustained success on a shoestring budget elusive without substantial luck. However, strategic spending can secure playoff berths and competitive advantage. Securing a superstar shortstop at a discounted rate (if feasible) is a pivotal move in this direction.
Consider the financial landscape: 32 players currently earn at least $25 million this season, with 93 players earning at least $15 million and 163 earning at least $10 million. In today’s MLB economy, these figures underscore that $10 million is no longer a significant sum, nor is $15 million.
If the Reds can negotiate De La Cruz’s free agent years for less than $30 million annually, they should seize the opportunity immediately. Only five players currently surpass De La Cruz’s performance this season—a testament to his exceptional value. One cannot assume the availability of a prospect capable of replicating his impact, nor can a comparable replacement be easily found at a lower cost. The imperative is clear: secure De La Cruz now and bolster the team around him.
In contemporary Major League Baseball, with escalating salaries and burgeoning team revenues, any franchise aspiring to competitiveness must prioritize retaining elite talent like Elly De La Cruz. The Reds made a pivotal move with Joey Votto years ago, and history validates its success based on player performance.
Elly De La Cruz represents a lottery win for the Reds. To let him depart in a few years and gamble on finding another such talent would not align with a franchise genuinely committed to winning.