As the Pittsburgh Pirates approach the final week of their challenging season, one of the few bright narratives is that of Paul Skenes. The 22-year-old right-handed pitcher has emerged as a standout player amidst another disappointing year for the team, marking their sixth consecutive losing season and the 28th in the last 32 years.
In his recent outing against the Cincinnati Reds, Skenes delivered a stellar performance in what was his penultimate start of the season, leading the Pirates to a 2-0 victory. He pitched five shutout innings, allowing only two hits and issuing no walks while striking out an impressive nine batters. This victory improved his record to 11-3 and lowered his earned run average (ERA) to 1.99 across 22 starts.
Remarkably, Skenes is only the second pitcher in Major League Baseball history, since the inception of earned runs as a statistic in 1913, to maintain an ERA below 2.00 through 22 starts. The first was Steve Rogers, who achieved a 1.95 ERA for the Montreal Expos between 1973 and 1974. Additionally, Skenes has recorded 167 strikeouts, ranking fifth among pitchers in their first 22 career appearances since 1901. He trails only notable names like Hideo Nomo and Kerry Wood.
Another impressive aspect of Skenes’ performance is that he has allowed six hits or fewer in each of his starts, marking the fourth-longest streak in MLB history. This puts him in the company of renowned pitchers like Shohei Ohtani and Tony Cingrani.
With such an outstanding season, discussions have turned to whether Skenes should be awarded the National League Rookie of the Year. For much of the summer, he was the frontrunner until he was recently surpassed by Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres. However, sportsbooks have now reinstated Skenes as the favorite, with odds hovering around -145 at DraftKings, -150 at FanDuel, and -160 at BetMGM.
Merrill presents a compelling case as well, boasting a .292 batting average with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 151 games for a team on the brink of postseason contention. His contributions have been crucial, particularly in high-pressure situations, and he has adapted well to a new position in center field after transitioning from shortstop.
Historically, voting for the Rookie of the Year has often involved weighing the impact of pitchers against that of position players. While Skenes leads Merrill in the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) metric at 6.0 to 3.9 in Baseball-Reference’s evaluation, Merrill has the edge in FanGraphs’ calculations, 5.1 to 3.9.
Despite the buzz surrounding his potential Rookie of the Year win, Skenes remains focused on his performance. He emphasized the importance of continuing to play well and execute his game plan, downplaying any personal ambitions. Meanwhile, fans are eagerly anticipating his final start, which will take place during a three-game series against the Yankees in New York, hoping he can finish the season on a high note.